Africa's emerging population, and last power asset: ageing inevitable but possibly far into the future

نویسندگان

  • Chrysanth Lwechungura KAMUZORA
  • C. Lwechungura Kamuzora
چکیده

Dreaded doomsday ageing consequences in, particularly European countries and Japan, a result of past protracted fertility decline, provides a pivotal lesson. High fertility Africa is perceived being in a unique historical opportunity, not only to avoid ageing but as some solution to the ageing world also. The paper therefore reviews consequences of ageing in Europe: a predicament, particularly with the impossibility of low fertility reversal. In contrast Africa is argued as continuing with a young age structure, even with fertility conservatively put at replacement as early as Year 2035 to reflect relevant young generations' lower desires. With Europe allowed replacement fertility in the long-run, population projections are made. Resulting world regions' population shares show Africa's increasing, with AIDS argued as insignificant; similarly, the state of the art pointing to population growth as never been deleterious. Attention however is directed to trends in Africa's young age structure, hence her historical unique opportunity: avoiding ageing and possible lending its labour force to ageing Europe. Challenges of maintaining Africa's fertility above replacement, and labour export acceptance to Europe, are realised, but argued as positively surmountable.

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تاریخ انتشار 2001